Keyes Foresees Super Bowl XLV

The Lombardi Trophy

Here we are the best outcome the NFL could have hoped for Steelers vs Packers. The opposite of what I predicted Jets vs. Bears but what can you do, I started hot and now I'm below zero. One last chance at redemption until next year.

Steelers vs. Packers Both teams are very well coached, both teams have Super Bowl history and both teams have the star QB. We saw the Steelers rediscover their run game against the Jets, that was something I didn't see coming. As I watched the game last week I tweeted sometime in the first quarter the Jets needed to contain Ben Roethlisbergers ability to extend the play. Easy for me to say sitting in my favorite chair with the fireplace on, but it was true. The Jets initial coverage was more than enough to get the job done, it was once he passed the 3-5 second window, escaped from the pocket that he was doing damage. If the Packers want to beat the Steelers they will need to keep Ben in the pocket. His ability to improvise is too high and actually makes him a better QB when he's doing it.

Rashard Mendahalls running game needs to be with in the 75-95 window, anything over that and the Steelers will be in the drivers seat. The one thing I espeically liked from the Steelers was their opening drive. When you put together a drive like that it sends a message you are here for business.

This shouldn't be my last note but it's just the way I write so no disrespect Mike Tomlin... 38 years old and at his 3rd Super Bowl. Mike Tomlin is doing what every coach dreams of, but most of all he's doing it right. You  don't here his name in the paper for anything negative, no media tyraids, no conflicts with players. He's a man who understands the game, his players and his situation.

Switching gears to the Packers, Aaron Rodgers is going to have to put on a MVP performance as I see it. The Steelers defense will be right next to him all day. The one weapon he can use to change that is the big play. Going down field, pass plays of 30 yards or more are very needed in this game. I can't even imagine how much the Packers will miss Jermichael Finley next Sunday. That would have stacked the deck towards the Packers for sure.

The Green Bay running game needs to have positive carries with no turnovers. The ball can't hit the ground.  Starks and company have to understand that every run won't be for 5 plus yards and the run game will give their defense a chance to breath. This lesson is vital.

Finally Mike McCarthy another understated coach, compliments to him as well. I am curious to see what he does to combat the Steelers defense. With  two weeks Troy Polomalu and company have a chance to heal and get back to that blitzing Steeler defense.

My prediction Steelers 33 Packers 28, but don't bet on it....

Something To Consider About The Jets

I was driving in the car today listening to sports talk radio and the subject was the New York Jets,  the bravado of Rex Ryan and how the culture seems to be working for the team on the field. It got me thinking. Just how dangerous is it if the New York Jets win the Super Bowl?

In life we are taught many lessons by our parents, friends, peers, idols and mentors. It seems more and more the lessons are starting at a younger age. Instead of teaching competition first they now teach sportsmanship. I didn't grow up in these times, I like most people on the Rex Ryan band wagon get a kick out of calling your shots before they happen, making everything a competition and personal. But I have to tell you, I don't what it is , but it just clicked. What are the repercussions of Jets winning with the demeanor of their coach and key players being so arrogant and boisterous.

Are we going to start seeing pee wee league coaches hyping their players up at weekend games trying to emulate Rex Ryan? How about the condoning of kids in High School sports smack talking weeks before a game about how they are going to beat this person and taking shots at the opposing teams players. People in life often follow those who succeed. So that's what got me wondering how far will this new trend go if New York Jets win the Super Bowl. Many people will say it's the parents job to teach the values blah blah blah... Realistically its every ones job, just not the parents. We all are role models, the parents and surrounding families  are the primary ones. So when kids are spending half their time at school and the other half at after school events be it athletics or with other friends how can we reinforce the positive and identify the negative if in this case the Jets win the Super Bowl. I just may be over reacting to a thought in my head but just something to think about. I know its made me change my view.

Keyes Foresees Conference Championships

Let me start off by saying this has been the year of the unforeseen. Which is quite ironic that I am trying to foresee the future. Green Bay vs Atlanta, of course there was a chance the Packers would win, but like that? Jets over the lack luster Patriot offense? I have to use the "Come on man..." Seriously congratulations to both of those teams but I clearly didn't pick them. I was only correct on 2 games last week Bears and Steelers so saving grace means I would have to stick with them till the end. Let's do the match ups and find out.

Packers vs Bears - This is probably the simpler game to analyze. The Packers go as Rodgers goes. The only way the Packers win this game is with Rodgers playing like he has all season minus the concussions. It's very likely he may light up the Bears defense. Weather calls for 11/21 degrees. That's some awfully cold weather to pass and catch the ball consistently through out the game.  Kickoff is at 3 PM so the later part of this game will be close to night fall. So if the Packers can't pass the run game becomes huge. Can Starks carry them? I have my doubts. On the Bears side the Defense is playing good, not great. They did let up last week towards the end which scares me against Rodgers. Jay Cutler has been phenomenal. I am amazed at what Mike Martz can do as OC with  QB's. Add the next level performance by Matt Forte and Greg Olson the Bears have an offense that can sustain and drive the ball. In all the Packers seem to have the offensive edge, but the Bears have home field. Both teams cold weather tested so  no edge there. On this one I am going with my thick head Bears 30  Packers 20 

Jets vs Steelers - Rex Ryan is one smart coach. When you can talk that much and put a game plan together you deserve the accolade. The man called himself to the carpet, it's me vs him. I mean technicaly it wasn't but that's a huge pill to swallow if it doesn't turn out the way you expected. Mark Sanchez is looking like he will be an elite QB in the coming years, LT finally got passed the Pats and New York is talking Super Bowl. Being from New York I can only imagine the craziness that's about to ensue this weekend. So lets get to the game. Steelers are a team of resolve. A team like that is always one of the hardest to beat, especially at home. The match up for the Jets defense is much better against the Steelers offense then it was against the Pats. If Revis can shut down Ward it becomes about how much can the other receivers contribute. I don't see Mendhall's style running for over 100 yds against the Jets. This is a game where 14 pts can win it. Ben can't do it by himself, they are going to need players to step up and I am sure Mike Tomlin will be making that statement all week. The Jets could be the beneficiaries of excellent field position all game if they can shut Ben down. Rex seems to motivate and push the buttons at all the right times, minus that one loss to the Pats. The offense has confidence, Brian Schottenheimer has been making some good calls along with some bad ones but you can't always get them right. He's got his team in position to win again this week and that's all you can ask for. I am looking forward to this game because this is the best chance the Jets have had in a long time of reaching the Super Bowl and the Steelers just seem to keep turning out great teams with out great names. On this one I am going to go Jets 17 Steelers 13


Hopefully I get this one right....

Keyes Foresees Round 2 Playoffs

First round playoff games are over and we had some shockers. Seattle? I don't think anyone but Bonnie Bernstein called this one. This wasn't one of my finest weeks, lost on KC, lost on New OrleanSeas, lost on Philadelphia. Hopefully there is some sort of redemption this week cause 1-3 looks ugly as a record.


Baltimore at Pittsburgh - Excellent defensive match up, rivalry and venue. Ravens didn't look to expend too much energy last week so I don't see them being flat for the Steelers. If Pittsburgh can run they might be able to expose the Ravens D, if they are one dimensional I can't see Ben passing all over them. I have been wrong before. The line says -3 Steelers which basically is a wash. My gut is telling me Steelers but with my luck its going to be Ravens. So Steelers it is 22 Ravens 20 Key Star - Jeff Reed

Green Bay at Atlanta - This is the time for Matty "Ice" to stand tall. Don't try and out throw Rodgers just manage the game and turnovers.The Falcons might think they need to run the ball to keep Rodgers off the field but I wouldn't go run heavy. The Falcons have down field threats and if they go heavy with T. Gonzalez across the middle that can be their pseudo run game.  At 2.5 favorite in the Georgia Dome the crowd will need to show why the spread should have been more. Falcons need to get to Rodgers often, keep his scrambling to a minimum and force him to turn the ball over. I don't see all three happening so if they can hold him to 2 TD's and not fall behind they should pull this out. Falcons 31 Packers 17 Key Star John Abraham

Seattle at Chicago - Seahawks wow... what else can we say. The Bears need to take care of business quickly. The longer the Seahawks are in the game the longer they will believe they can win. I would imagine a heavy dose of M Lynch as long as they are out in front. I wasn't thrilled with Jeremy Bates play calling last week but it got the job done. This week it should be interesting to see what he tries against the Bears. From a defensive stand point they just need to stop Forte. Mike Marks was surely home dialing up some plays to expose that Seahawk defense. Neither team should be kicking the ball to the returners this week, they both have "heart break" ability to end the game or put it out of reach. Bears 24 Seahawks 7 Key Star Matt Forte

NY Jets at New England - Be careful what you wish for. NE NY III. Yes the first two meetings count for something, but not as much as this one. Ask both sides and they would tell you the same. I was impressed with Rex Ryan's ability to let go of his natural urge and devise a new scheme to contain Peyton. It's one thing to be good, it's another to be good and willing to adjust. He is taking steps to the next level of coaching, but he is still far behind the man in the hoodie. LT and Green will need to repeat last weeks performance and then some to have a chance. I am not going to mention Sanchez, I think we all know what he has to do. The one thing the Jets will need is excellent special teams play. If they can get that it might even up the playing field in the later parts of the game. For the Patriots just keep doing what they have been doing. Playoffs are not, I don't see the Pats letting up until under 5 minutes to go. So the  Jets will have to save themselves from embarrassment. I wish this game was next week instead of this week, but since it's not Patriots 33 Jets 21 Key Star Tom Brady