Keyes Foresees Super Bowl XLV

The Lombardi Trophy

Here we are the best outcome the NFL could have hoped for Steelers vs Packers. The opposite of what I predicted Jets vs. Bears but what can you do, I started hot and now I'm below zero. One last chance at redemption until next year.

Steelers vs. Packers Both teams are very well coached, both teams have Super Bowl history and both teams have the star QB. We saw the Steelers rediscover their run game against the Jets, that was something I didn't see coming. As I watched the game last week I tweeted sometime in the first quarter the Jets needed to contain Ben Roethlisbergers ability to extend the play. Easy for me to say sitting in my favorite chair with the fireplace on, but it was true. The Jets initial coverage was more than enough to get the job done, it was once he passed the 3-5 second window, escaped from the pocket that he was doing damage. If the Packers want to beat the Steelers they will need to keep Ben in the pocket. His ability to improvise is too high and actually makes him a better QB when he's doing it.

Rashard Mendahalls running game needs to be with in the 75-95 window, anything over that and the Steelers will be in the drivers seat. The one thing I espeically liked from the Steelers was their opening drive. When you put together a drive like that it sends a message you are here for business.

This shouldn't be my last note but it's just the way I write so no disrespect Mike Tomlin... 38 years old and at his 3rd Super Bowl. Mike Tomlin is doing what every coach dreams of, but most of all he's doing it right. You  don't here his name in the paper for anything negative, no media tyraids, no conflicts with players. He's a man who understands the game, his players and his situation.

Switching gears to the Packers, Aaron Rodgers is going to have to put on a MVP performance as I see it. The Steelers defense will be right next to him all day. The one weapon he can use to change that is the big play. Going down field, pass plays of 30 yards or more are very needed in this game. I can't even imagine how much the Packers will miss Jermichael Finley next Sunday. That would have stacked the deck towards the Packers for sure.

The Green Bay running game needs to have positive carries with no turnovers. The ball can't hit the ground.  Starks and company have to understand that every run won't be for 5 plus yards and the run game will give their defense a chance to breath. This lesson is vital.

Finally Mike McCarthy another understated coach, compliments to him as well. I am curious to see what he does to combat the Steelers defense. With  two weeks Troy Polomalu and company have a chance to heal and get back to that blitzing Steeler defense.

My prediction Steelers 33 Packers 28, but don't bet on it....

Keyes Foresees Conference Championships

Let me start off by saying this has been the year of the unforeseen. Which is quite ironic that I am trying to foresee the future. Green Bay vs Atlanta, of course there was a chance the Packers would win, but like that? Jets over the lack luster Patriot offense? I have to use the "Come on man..." Seriously congratulations to both of those teams but I clearly didn't pick them. I was only correct on 2 games last week Bears and Steelers so saving grace means I would have to stick with them till the end. Let's do the match ups and find out.

Packers vs Bears - This is probably the simpler game to analyze. The Packers go as Rodgers goes. The only way the Packers win this game is with Rodgers playing like he has all season minus the concussions. It's very likely he may light up the Bears defense. Weather calls for 11/21 degrees. That's some awfully cold weather to pass and catch the ball consistently through out the game.  Kickoff is at 3 PM so the later part of this game will be close to night fall. So if the Packers can't pass the run game becomes huge. Can Starks carry them? I have my doubts. On the Bears side the Defense is playing good, not great. They did let up last week towards the end which scares me against Rodgers. Jay Cutler has been phenomenal. I am amazed at what Mike Martz can do as OC with  QB's. Add the next level performance by Matt Forte and Greg Olson the Bears have an offense that can sustain and drive the ball. In all the Packers seem to have the offensive edge, but the Bears have home field. Both teams cold weather tested so  no edge there. On this one I am going with my thick head Bears 30  Packers 20 

Jets vs Steelers - Rex Ryan is one smart coach. When you can talk that much and put a game plan together you deserve the accolade. The man called himself to the carpet, it's me vs him. I mean technicaly it wasn't but that's a huge pill to swallow if it doesn't turn out the way you expected. Mark Sanchez is looking like he will be an elite QB in the coming years, LT finally got passed the Pats and New York is talking Super Bowl. Being from New York I can only imagine the craziness that's about to ensue this weekend. So lets get to the game. Steelers are a team of resolve. A team like that is always one of the hardest to beat, especially at home. The match up for the Jets defense is much better against the Steelers offense then it was against the Pats. If Revis can shut down Ward it becomes about how much can the other receivers contribute. I don't see Mendhall's style running for over 100 yds against the Jets. This is a game where 14 pts can win it. Ben can't do it by himself, they are going to need players to step up and I am sure Mike Tomlin will be making that statement all week. The Jets could be the beneficiaries of excellent field position all game if they can shut Ben down. Rex seems to motivate and push the buttons at all the right times, minus that one loss to the Pats. The offense has confidence, Brian Schottenheimer has been making some good calls along with some bad ones but you can't always get them right. He's got his team in position to win again this week and that's all you can ask for. I am looking forward to this game because this is the best chance the Jets have had in a long time of reaching the Super Bowl and the Steelers just seem to keep turning out great teams with out great names. On this one I am going to go Jets 17 Steelers 13


Hopefully I get this one right....